AIDS Cases Continue to Rise Though Less Rapidly in India
Originally published by Reuters Health, March 19, 2002
NEW DELHI (Reuters Health) — India's HIV-infected population increased by 110,000 individuals in 2001, says India's health ministry. The total number of HIV-positive individuals now stands officially at 3.97 million.
The increase is less than in the preceding year by some 50,000 when the number of HIV cases increased by 160,000, a health ministry press statement says.
India has the second highest number of HIV-positive people globally after South Africa. "The estimated number of adults with HIV in the country for 1998, 1999 and 2000 were 3.5 million, 3.7 million and 3.8 million, respectively", says the health ministry.
The new figures come from the HIV Sentinel Surveillance Round 2001 that was conducted at 320 sites in all states and territories in India during the period between August and October 2001. This includes 88 new sites that have come into being since 2000. There are 135 sites in STD clinics, 170 antenatal clinics, 13 sites for intravenous drug users (IDUs) and 2 sites for men-having-sex-with men (MSM).
The HIV Sentinel Surveillance was established in India in 1994 with 55 sites to monitor trends of HIV infection in specific high- as well as low-risk groups.
"The point estimate for year 2001 comes to 3.31 million HIV infections in the adult population (15-49 year age group) in the country," according to the National AIDS Control Organization (NACO) report. "With a 20% variability to take care of unaccounted numbers of IDUs, MSM and other age groups, a working estimate of 3.97 million HIV infections was arrived at," it states.
"This shows that while the epidemic is still spreading in the country, there is a gradual decrease in new infections," says the NACO report.
"Over a period of time, the [incidence of] new infections may reduce to a negligible number, which is an indicator of a plateauing of the epidemic," says NACO. Given the existing indicators, "such a phenomena may occur in the next 3-4 years, if a strong and effective programme is implemented in all the states."
"Encouraging early signs of sero-stabilization have been observed in high prevalence states", says the ministry's press release.
The final estimates this time have been arrived at in consultation with experts from WHO and UNAIDS, said the health ministry. In the past, UNAIDS and health ministry figures of AIDS deaths in India have differed dramatically, with Indian government officials challenging the UNAIDS figures and methodology publicly.
